Pins of War currently has an interesting look at some of the sales data available for hobby games. As the author, Zweischneid, points out, a lot of this data is sourced from retailers, distributors, and manufacturers and not from the companies involved themselves. However, this still gives a general indication as to the health of the hobby industry.
While Zweischneid does point out that the newer games pushing out established games from the top five list have pre-painted miniatures, I in no way believe this means that miniature painting is loosing its wider appeal. It is more likely that this is purely coincidence, especially since the games (Star Wars X-wing and Star Trek Attack Wing) pushing established games out are both drawn from much larger, and more well know, IPs.
That isn’t to say that pre-painted miniatures are a passing phase. For certain properties, and when aimed at particular markets, pre-painted miniatures probably serve an important purporse. But with the amount of industry already built around building, painting and converting miniatures, it seems unlikely this aspect of the hobby will disappear any time soon.
